IFS
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices IFS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
47.92 +1.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
49.01 +4.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 47.35 · prior close 47.06 | |
| Bargain buy side |
46.21 -1.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
45.19 -4.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 45.94 | 2 in 10 days | 48.20 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 46.21 | 3 in 10 days | 47.92 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 46.47 | 4 in 10 days | 47.66 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 44.60 | 2 in 10 weeks | 49.66 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 45.19 | 3 in 10 weeks | 49.01 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 45.75 | 4 in 10 weeks | 48.41 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From IFS's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | -3.3% | -4.4% | — | — |
| Oct 2, 2026 | -2.0% | +1.4% | — | — |
| Aug 11, 2026 | -2.1% | -5.5% | -4.4% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -2.7% | +1.7% | -5.4% | -11.0% |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -2.2% | +0.7% | -6.9% | -7.5% |
| Jun 15, 2026 | -3.9% | +0.4% | +7.5% | -0.8% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -2.7% | +9.0% | +20.2% | +13.1% |
| May 22, 2026 | -3.0% | +2.2% | +11.6% | +12.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among IFS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 10, 2026 |
60.68 +28.2% |
| 50-day average | 53.88 +13.8% |
| 200-day average | 51.21 +8.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 49.01 +3.5% |
| Now | 47.35 |
| Previous close Oct 30, 2026 |
47.06 -0.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 45.19 -4.6% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 17, 2025 |
36.99 -21.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 7 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.