IGV
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- IGV +1.06% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +1.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices IGV only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
109.55 +1.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
111.95 +4.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 108.79 · prior close 107.65 | |
| Bargain buy side |
105.78 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
103.51 -3.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 105.18 | 2 in 10 days | 110.18 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 105.78 | 3 in 10 days | 109.55 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 106.34 | 4 in 10 days | 108.97 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 102.20 | 2 in 10 weeks | 113.39 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 103.51 | 3 in 10 weeks | 111.95 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 104.75 | 4 in 10 weeks | 110.63 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From IGV's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | -3.5% | -4.1% | +1.9% | — |
| Aug 14, 2026 | -2.1% | -0.7% | +1.4% | — |
| Jul 22, 2026 | -3.0% | +3.8% | +14.5% | — |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -2.4% | -4.9% | +4.3% | +18.6% |
| Jun 2, 2026 | -2.8% | -11.2% | -10.6% | +1.4% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | -5.8% | +0.4% | +12.5% | +5.3% |
| Apr 9, 2026 | -3.9% | +10.1% | +18.9% | +20.6% |
| Mar 24, 2026 | -4.3% | -1.0% | +3.4% | +6.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among IGV's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 22, 2025 |
117.77 +8.3% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 27, 2025 |
117.06 +7.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 111.95 +2.9% |
| Now | 108.79 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
107.65 -1.0% |
| 50-day average | 105.78 -2.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 103.51 -4.9% |
| 200-day average | 93.73 -13.8% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 10, 2026 |
74.66 -31.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 25 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.