ILMN
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ILMN −2.13% on the last session vs SPY −0.08%: −2.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 0 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Underweight, raised target $160 → $200.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ILMN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
281.08 +3.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
293.05 +7.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 265.96 · prior close 271.76 | |
| Bargain buy side |
262.75 -3.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
252.02 -7.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 259.88 | 2 in 10 days | 284.18 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 262.75 | 3 in 10 days | 281.08 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 265.44 | 4 in 10 days | 278.23 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 245.92 | 2 in 10 weeks | 300.32 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 252.02 | 3 in 10 weeks | 293.05 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 257.84 | 4 in 10 weeks | 286.43 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ILMN's daily swings (about 3.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ILMN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Aug 16, 2021 |
510.54 +92.0% |
| Highest analyst target | 365.00 +37.2% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 5, 2026 |
293.69 +10.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 293.05 +10.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
271.76 +2.2% |
| Now | 265.96 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 252.02 -5.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 233.55 -12.2% |
| 50-day average | 232.51 -12.6% |
| 200-day average | 169.00 -36.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 113.00 -57.5% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
91.00 -65.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 26 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.