INDV
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- INDV +0.81% on the last session vs SPY +0.00%: +0.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices INDV only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
34.73 +1.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
35.46 +3.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 34.44 · prior close 34.16 | |
| Bargain buy side |
33.60 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
32.91 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 33.41 | 2 in 10 days | 34.92 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 33.60 | 3 in 10 days | 34.73 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 33.77 | 4 in 10 days | 34.56 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 32.52 | 2 in 10 weeks | 35.89 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 32.91 | 3 in 10 weeks | 35.46 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 33.28 | 4 in 10 weeks | 35.06 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From INDV's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | -3.2% | -6.6% | -6.0% | — |
| Aug 3, 2026 | -6.6% | +2.9% | -7.5% | — |
| Jul 20, 2026 | -3.5% | +2.3% | +0.8% | — |
| Jun 1, 2026 | -3.2% | +7.2% | +15.4% | +0.1% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | -5.5% | +7.1% | +27.2% | +31.7% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | -3.9% | -1.1% | +10.0% | +30.8% |
| Mar 12, 2026 | -6.0% | -1.2% | +2.4% | +23.6% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | -2.9% | -1.4% | -12.0% | +10.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among INDV's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 26, 2026 |
41.83 +21.5% |
| 50-day average | 36.12 +4.9% |
| 200-day average | 35.71 +3.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 35.46 +3.0% |
| Now | 34.44 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
34.16 -0.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 32.91 -4.4% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 21, 2025 |
24.09 -30.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 12 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.