INTC
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- INTC −0.56% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −1.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Sep 28): After its 79 big drops in the past 5 years, INTC typically gained 0.4% over the next day (median) and was higher 56% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -1.6% and +2.4%. An ordinary day: +0.0%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big drops, that ranks #162 of 500.
- 5 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 73% positive over the week.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | 0.0%#375 H | -0.1%#421 H | +0.6%#293 H | +0.3%#315 M |
| Big drop Sep 28 (-4.3% or worse) | 79 | +0.4%#162 H | +0.3%#258 H | +2.5%#188 H | +7.8%#162 M |
| Big gain (+5.5% or better) | 76 | +0.1%#234 H | +1.2%#154 H | +1.8%#196 H | +12.8%#17 M |
| Earnings beat | 14 | -0.5%#380 M | -0.4%#355 M | +0.4%#370 M | +5.7%#108 M |
| Earnings miss | 5 | -0.7%#195 L | -1.5%#160 L | -5.8%#213 L | +0.8%#135 L |
| 52-week high | 10 | +0.7%#170 M | +3.4%#134 M | -0.1%#251 M | +12.8%#155 L |
| 52-week low | 4 | -0.5%#133 L | +2.4%#122 L | +13.9%#87 L | +12.8%#59 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 6 | +0.1%#232 L | +1.5%#212 L | -0.6%#290 L | +11.0%#200 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 7 | +0.1%#239 L | -6.1%#429 L | -0.3%#261 L | +10.9%#161 L |
| RSI oversold | 9 | -1.6%#425 M | -0.9%#383 M | -2.2%#318 M | -2.9%#336 L |
| RSI overbought | 16 | +0.7%#162 M | +0.5%#209 M | +3.2%#179 M | +4.6%#164 M |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 73 | -0.1%#69 H | +0.2%#60 H | +0.4%#73 H | -1.5%#67 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 7 | +2.0%#3 L | +13.1%#2 L | +14.3%#6 L | +34.3%#1 L |
| Analyst downgrade | 3 | -1.5%#7 L | +19.9%#2 L | +32.5%#2 L | +28.0%#2 L |
| Insider buy | 2 | -3.4%– | -8.0%– | -4.4%– | +94.2%– |
| Insider unplanned sale | 3 | -0.7%#21 L | -0.6%#18 L | +3.4%#17 L | -6.6%– |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is INTC's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big gain (+5.5% or better)
A daily rise among the stock's own best 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 76 | +0.13% (-0.5 to +0.5) | High | #234 of 500 | 51% | -0.40% |
-9%
+15%
|
|
| 1 week | 76 | +1.18% (-0.6 to +2.6) | High | #154 of 500 | 55% | -0.02% |
-21%
+39%
|
|
| 1 month | 74 ≈42 indep. | +1.79% (-1.6 to +3.4) | High | #196 of 500 | 57% | +0.10% |
-42%
+90%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 72 ≈15 indep. | +12.79% (+9.1 to +17.2) | Medium | #17 of 499 | 71% | +6.57% |
-33%
+182%
|
Range of outcomes: all of INTC's big gains in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big gain by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 47 | -0.2%H vs +0.1% | +0.8%H vs +0.5% | +1.5%H vs +2.9% | +17.2%M vs +13.9% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 29 | +0.7%H vs -0.1% | +1.4%H vs -0.5% | +2.2%M vs +0.3% | +9.9%M vs -0.8% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 51 | +0.1%H vs -0.1% | +0.8%H vs -0.6% | +1.4%H vs -0.3% | +12.1%M vs +6.0% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 25 | +0.1%H vs 0.0% | +3.0%H vs +0.3% | +4.6%M vs +1.0% | +15.5%M vs -3.6% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 52 | +0.1%H vs -0.1% | +0.2%H vs -0.6% | +1.8%H vs -0.5% | +9.5%M vs +1.7% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 24 | +0.4%H vs 0.0% | +2.3%H vs +0.3% | +1.5%M vs +1.6% | +18.2%M vs -0.6% |
The same event split by where INTC stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest big gains
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 17 @ $108.80 | +7.7% on the day (line +5.5%) | -0.2% | +17.1% | … | … |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Sep 8 @ $104.47 | +9.1% on the day (line +5.5%) | +1.7% | -7.0% | … | … |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Jul 30 @ $91.13 | +11.3% on the day (line +5.5%) | -1.0% | +9.5% | -1.8% | … |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Jul 21 @ $105.45 | +8.6% on the day (line +5.5%) | -2.7% | -18.2% | -12.0% | … |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Jun 30 @ $139.63 | +6.0% on the day (line +5.5%) | -9.0% | -21.0% | -34.7% | -17.0% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Jun 18 @ $133.99 | +10.6% on the day (line +5.3%) | +5.2% | -4.2% | -21.3% | -18.9% |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Jun 8 @ $110.27 | +11.2% on the day (line +5.0%) | -2.1% | +16.0% | +2.1% | -5.3% |
| May 20, 2026 | May 20 @ $118.96 | +7.4% on the day (line +4.9%) | -0.4% | +1.6% | +18.5% | -22.6% |
| May 5, 2026 | May 5 @ $108.15 | +12.9% on the day (line +4.7%) | +4.5% | +11.5% | +3.4% | -6.6% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Apr 24 @ $82.54 | +23.6% on the day (line +4.5%) | +3.0% | +20.7% | +49.6% | +11.1% |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Apr 13 @ $65.18 | +4.5% on the day (line +4.3%) | -2.1% | +0.8% | +85.0% | +65.3% |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Apr 2 @ $50.38 | +4.9% on the day (line +3.8%) | +0.8% | +23.8% | +90.1% | +142.6% |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Mar 25 @ $47.18 | +7.1% on the day (line +3.7%) | -6.5% | +1.8% | +74.9% | +181.6% |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Mar 4 @ $45.58 | +5.8% on the day (line +3.7%) | +0.8% | +5.3% | +10.5% | +147.3% |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Feb 24 @ $46.12 | +5.7% on the day (line +3.6%) | +1.6% | -6.5% | +2.3% | +167.8% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.