INTC
Down more than its semiconductors peers
- INTC −4.25% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: −4.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- More than its group: its semiconductors peers -0.8% (-0.8 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 8): After its 79 big drops in the past 5 years, INTC was higher a day later 44 times out of 79; half the outcomes fell between -1.6% and +2.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 12 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 71% positive over the week.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Mizuho maintained Neutral, raised target $92.00 → $114.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.6× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices INTC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
101.90 +3.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
106.77 +8.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 93.95 · prior close 98.12 | |
| Bargain buy side |
94.48 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
90.17 -8.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 93.33 | 2 in 10 days | 103.16 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 94.48 | 3 in 10 days | 101.90 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 95.57 | 4 in 10 days | 100.74 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 87.73 | 2 in 10 weeks | 109.74 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 90.17 | 3 in 10 weeks | 106.77 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 92.51 | 4 in 10 weeks | 104.07 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From INTC's daily swings (about 3.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -5.3% | — | — | — |
| Sep 28, 2026 | -5.7% | +0.1% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -5.6% | +8.5% | +4.4% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -6.6% | -9.5% | +12.5% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -7.9% | -2.3% | -5.5% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -6.1% | -5.9% | -5.2% | +1.5% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -9.0% | -11.4% | -29.0% | -5.3% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | -8.5% | +12.5% | -18.8% | -13.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among INTC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 200.00 +112.9% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 22, 2026 |
140.94 +50.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 118.05 +25.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 106.77 +13.6% |
| 50-day average | 103.34 +10.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
98.12 +4.4% |
| Now | 93.95 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 90.17 -4.0% |
| 200-day average | 84.29 -10.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 80.00 -14.8% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
33.62 -64.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.