INTU
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- INTU −0.60% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −1.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Sep 30): After its 58 big gains in the past 5 years, INTU typically gained 0.3% over the next day (median) and was higher 53% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -1.2% and +2.1%. An ordinary day: +0.0%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #133 of 500.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | 0.0%#383 H | +0.2%#258 H | -0.4%#447 H | -0.3%#395 M |
| Big drop (-3.0% or worse) | 59 | -0.1%#399 H | +0.4%#261 H | -0.7%#473 H | -2.5%#366 M |
| Big gain Sep 30 (+2.7% or better) | 58 | +0.3%#133 H | +0.8%#172 H | -0.4%#388 H | -1.0%#333 M |
| Earnings beat | 19 | -0.4%#383 M | +0.3%#266 M | +1.7%#164 M | +0.5%#314 M |
| Earnings miss | 1 | -2.6%– | -4.6%– | -1.4%– | -16.5%– |
| 52-week high | 12 | +0.3%#45 M | +1.0%#190 M | -1.1%#414 M | -3.5%#360 M |
| 52-week low | 7 | +5.0%#45 L | +8.0%#3 L | +12.1%#69 L | +9.1%#99 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 12 | +0.7%#47 M | +1.0%#139 M | +0.8%#300 M | +3.7%#242 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 11 | +0.4%#115 M | +1.7%#23 M | +3.3%#94 M | +3.3%#258 M |
| RSI oversold | 12 | +0.1%#265 M | +2.2%#15 M | +2.9%#216 M | +0.1%#275 L |
| RSI overbought | 13 | +0.5%#37 M | +0.2%#223 M | -1.5%#360 M | -7.5%#387 M |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 3 | +0.6%#36 L | -0.9%#51 L | -16.0%#76 L | +7.0%– |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is INTU's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Crossed above 200-day avg
The close moves above its 200-day moving average.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 12 | +0.74% (-0.5 to +1.0) | Medium | #47 of 497 | 67% | +0.30% |
-2%
+4%
|
|
| 1 week | 12 | +0.99% (+0.6 to +3.1) | Medium | #139 of 497 | 75% | +0.29% |
-10%
+10%
|
|
| 1 month | 12 | +0.76% (-2.2 to +5.3) | Medium | #300 of 497 | 58% | -0.29% |
-8%
+20%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 12 ≈9 indep. | +3.75% (-2.1 to +10.4) | Medium | #242 of 494 | 67% | -0.95% |
-19%
+29%
|
Range of outcomes: all of INTU's crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Crossed above 200-day avg by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 7 | +1.0%L vs 0.0% | +0.6%L vs -0.1% | -0.3%L vs -0.9% | +4.2%L vs +0.5% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 5 | +0.7%L vs 0.0% | +3.1%L vs +0.6% | +5.3%L vs -0.1% | +3.3%L vs -0.8% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 5 | -0.6%L vs 0.0% | +1.2%L vs -0.1% | -0.3%L vs -1.5% | -2.2%L vs -0.4% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 7 | +0.8%L vs 0.0% | +0.8%L vs +0.4% | +5.3%L vs +0.6% | +5.6%L vs -0.1% |
The same event split by where INTU stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest crosses above the 200-day average
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2025 | Oct 21 @ $668.76 | +1.5% on the day | -0.6% | +0.6% | -3.6% | -18.7% |
| Aug 27, 2025 | Aug 27 @ $655.80 | +0.6% on the day | +0.8% | +0.8% | +5.3% | -2.1% |
| Apr 25, 2025 | Apr 25 @ $616.35 | +1.5% on the day | -0.9% | +1.2% | +20.5% | +28.1% |
| Nov 6, 2024 | Nov 6 @ $638.14 | +4.8% on the day | +4.0% | +8.9% | -0.3% | -9.3% |
| Sep 9, 2024 | Sep 9 @ $616.05 | +1.9% on the day | +1.1% | +3.1% | -2.2% | +3.3% |
| Aug 6, 2024 | Aug 6 @ $601.60 | +1.6% on the day | -0.5% | +5.5% | +1.5% | +1.3% |
| Jun 13, 2024 | Jun 13 @ $583.43 | +0.4% on the day | +0.2% | +6.3% | +12.2% | +10.4% |
| May 31, 2023 | May 31 @ $408.62 | +3.2% on the day | +0.7% | +0.8% | +9.3% | +29.2% |
| Apr 27, 2023 | Apr 27 @ $418.41 | +3.7% on the day | +3.4% | -1.6% | -2.5% | +19.5% |
| Mar 3, 2023 | Mar 3 @ $397.58 | +2.0% on the day | +1.0% | -3.9% | +7.9% | +5.6% |
| Jan 26, 2023 | Jan 26 @ $401.50 | +2.6% on the day | +2.4% | +9.6% | 0.0% | +4.2% |
| Dec 13, 2022 | Dec 13 @ $416.08 | +4.3% on the day | -2.2% | -9.6% | -8.0% | -2.2% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.