INTU
Up more than its software peers
- INTU +5.96% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +5.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- More than its group: its software peers +1.8% (+1.7 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big gain (+6.0% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.7%): After its 56 big gains in the past 5 years, INTU was higher a week later 32 times out of 56; half the outcomes fell between -4.7% and +3.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices INTU only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
317.80 +2.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
327.14 +5.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 328.94 · prior close 310.44 | |
| Bargain buy side |
303.25 -2.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
294.59 -5.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 300.95 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 320.23 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 303.25 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 317.80 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 305.41 | 4 in 10 days | 315.55 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 289.62 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 332.75 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 294.59 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 327.14 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 299.31 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 321.99 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From INTU's daily swings (about 2.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | +2.7% | — | — | — |
| Sep 30, 2026 | +2.9% | +7.8% | — | — |
| Sep 11, 2026 | +2.8% | -5.7% | -4.4% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | +2.9% | -7.1% | -25.1% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | +4.4% | +2.0% | -10.6% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | +2.8% | +0.3% | -6.1% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | +5.3% | +6.7% | +24.8% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +5.4% | -4.5% | +17.3% | +5.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among INTU's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jul 30, 2025 |
794.71 +141.6% |
| Highest analyst target | 732.00 +122.5% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 27, 2025 |
673.89 +104.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 405.60 +23.3% |
| 200-day average | 373.70 +13.6% |
| Now | 328.94 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 327.14 -0.5% |
| 50-day average | 319.60 -2.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
310.44 -5.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 294.59 -10.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 290.00 -11.8% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 25, 2026 |
252.77 -23.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 34 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.