IOVA
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices IOVA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
9.52 +12.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
10.99 +29.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 7.82 · prior close 8.48 | |
| Bargain buy side |
7.55 -11.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
6.54 -22.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 7.27 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 9.89 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 7.55 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 9.52 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 7.82 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 9.20 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 6.01 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 11.96 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 6.54 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 10.99 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 7.08 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 10.16 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From IOVA's daily swings (about 12.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | -35.4% | — | — | — |
| Oct 16, 2026 | -7.5% | +3.5% | — | — |
| Oct 6, 2026 | -8.4% | +11.9% | — | — |
| Aug 21, 2026 | -7.8% | -3.4% | +28.3% | — |
| Jul 31, 2026 | -13.2% | +55.8% | +100.7% | +134.9% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -7.6% | -0.3% | +10.6% | +127.4% |
| May 7, 2026 | -13.2% | -0.8% | +12.7% | +78.6% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | -7.7% | +4.3% | 0.0% | +9.2% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among IOVA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jun 7, 2011 |
159.00 +1933.2% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 20, 2026 |
14.86 +90.0% |
| 50-day average | 11.36 +45.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 10.99 +40.6% |
| Previous close Oct 30, 2026 |
8.48 +8.4% |
| Now | 7.82 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 6.54 -16.4% |
| 200-day average | 5.86 -25.0% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 5, 2025 |
1.81 -76.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 16 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.