IP
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- IP +7.49% on the last session vs SPY −0.04%: +7.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+7.5% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.6%): After its 74 big gains in the past 5 years, IP was higher a day later 34 times out of 74; half the outcomes fell between -0.8% and +0.9%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: Wells Fargo maintained Overweight, lowered target $46.00 → $42.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.7× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices IP only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
32.45 +1.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
33.15 +3.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 34.29 · prior close 31.90 | |
| Bargain buy side |
31.36 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
30.70 -3.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 31.18 | 2 in 10 days | 32.64 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 31.36 | 3 in 10 days | 32.45 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 31.52 | 4 in 10 days | 32.29 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 30.31 | 2 in 10 weeks | 33.57 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 30.70 | 3 in 10 weeks | 33.15 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 31.06 | 4 in 10 weeks | 32.77 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From IP's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among IP's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 62.00 +80.8% |
| All-time closing high Jan 24, 2025 |
55.69 +62.4% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 11, 2026 |
47.45 +38.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 46.36 +35.2% |
| 200-day average | 37.01 +7.9% |
| 50-day average | 36.38 +6.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 35.00 +2.1% |
| Now | 34.29 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 33.15 -3.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
31.90 -7.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 30.70 -10.5% |
| 52-week closing low May 19, 2026 |
28.62 -16.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 65 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.