IR
Moving with the market
- IR +0.15% on the last session vs SPY −0.09%: +0.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices IR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
79.11 +1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
80.58 +3.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 78.06 · prior close 77.94 | |
| Bargain buy side |
76.79 -1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
75.39 -3.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 76.42 | 2 in 10 days | 79.49 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 76.79 | 3 in 10 days | 79.11 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 77.14 | 4 in 10 days | 78.75 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 74.58 | 2 in 10 weeks | 81.45 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 75.39 | 3 in 10 weeks | 80.58 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 76.15 | 4 in 10 weeks | 79.77 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From IR's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among IR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 109.00 +39.6% |
| All-time closing high Nov 25, 2024 |
105.17 +34.7% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 17, 2026 |
98.69 +26.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 94.71 +21.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 82.00 +5.0% |
| 200-day average | 81.45 +4.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 80.58 +3.2% |
| Now | 78.06 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
77.94 -0.2% |
| 50-day average | 77.81 -0.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 75.39 -3.4% |
| 52-week closing low May 19, 2026 |
68.52 -12.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 9 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.