IREN
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- IREN −6.72% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: −6.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: Gartner warned most AI cloud providers will lose independence by decade's end, per 247wallst.com. (247wallst.com)
- Aftermath, volume spike (3.3× average volume on pace today so far): After its 14 volume spikes in the past 5 years, IREN was higher a month later 5 times out of 14; half the outcomes fell between -43.0% and +23.1%. History, not a forecast.
- 41 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 72% positive over the week.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 3.3× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices IREN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
32.19 +5.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
34.32 +12.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 28.50 · prior close 30.56 | |
| Bargain buy side |
29.01 -5.1% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
27.21 -11.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 28.53 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 32.74 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 29.01 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 32.19 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 29.47 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 31.69 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 26.20 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 35.64 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 27.21 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 34.32 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 28.18 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 33.14 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From IREN's daily swings (about 5.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -7.7% | — | — | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -12.5% | +26.0% | +16.7% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -8.6% | -0.7% | +7.4% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -9.0% | +16.5% | +26.5% | -12.3% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | -10.4% | +6.0% | +2.4% | +4.7% |
| Jun 24, 2026 | -8.1% | -13.9% | -26.3% | -6.5% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -12.1% | +10.0% | -20.9% | -17.8% |
| May 11, 2026 | -9.9% | -8.5% | -6.6% | -27.9% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among IREN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 139.00 +387.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 78.14 +174.1% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Nov 5, 2025 |
76.41 +168.1% |
| 200-day average | 45.41 +59.3% |
| 50-day average | 41.17 +44.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 40.00 +40.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 34.32 +20.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
30.56 +7.2% |
| Now | 28.50 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2026 |
28.50 0.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 27.21 -4.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.