ISRG
Reddit attention is surging
- ISRG −2.32% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −3.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 2): After its 63 big drops in the past 5 years, ISRG typically gained 1.3% over the next week (median) and was higher 60% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.0% and +3.8%. An ordinary week: +0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big drops, that ranks #47 of 500.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#157 H | +0.1%#348 H | 0.0%#388 H | +0.1%#324 M |
| Big drop latest session (-2.2% or worse) | 64 | +0.3%#92 H | +1.3%#47 H | +0.7%#334 H | +4.7%#227 M |
| Big gain Sep 28 (+2.1% or better) | 56 | +0.4%#67 H | +0.8%#115 H | +2.0%#165 H | +5.1%#205 M |
| Earnings beat | 18 | +0.9%#19 M | -1.6%#439 M | +5.1%#52 M | -0.6%#337 M |
| Earnings miss | 2 | +3.1%– | +5.8%– | -1.0%– | +10.5%– |
| 52-week high | 12 | -0.2%#470 M | -0.1%#334 M | +1.2%#180 M | +9.6%#42 L |
| 52-week low | 6 | +1.3%#35 L | +3.7%#9 L | +5.2%#103 L | +28.7%#39 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 8 | +0.3%#161 M | +1.7%#129 M | +5.8%#118 M | +2.6%#252 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 7 | -0.7%#387 L | 0.0%#320 L | -1.1%#280 L | +7.9%#92 L |
| RSI oversold | 11 | +1.3%#34 M | +1.2%#152 M | -1.9%#440 M | +1.7%#312 M |
| RSI overbought | 17 | +0.2%#96 M | -0.8%#480 M | +4.0%#24 M | +5.3%#83 M |
| Reddit spike | 3 | +4.1%#19 L | +2.0%#24 L | +4.8%#22 L | -0.6%#72 L |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is ISRG's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
RSI overbought
The 14-day RSI rises above 70.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 17 | +0.15% (+0.1 to +0.7) | Medium | #96 of 501 | 65% | +0.08% |
-1%
+5%
|
|
| 1 week | 17 | -0.79% (-1.1 to 0.0) | Medium | #480 of 501 | 35% | -0.66% |
-2%
+12%
|
|
| 1 month | 17 ≈15 indep. | +3.98% (+0.3 to +4.8) | Medium | #24 of 501 | 65% | +1.03% |
-9%
+14%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 17 ≈10 indep. | +5.33% (-3.1 to +9.5) | Medium | #83 of 501 | 59% | -1.40% |
-17%
+32%
|
Range of outcomes: all of ISRG's overbought readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI overbought by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 16 | +0.1%M vs +0.1% | -0.8%M vs +0.3% | +3.4%M vs +1.4% | +4.3%M vs +4.2% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 1 | +1.6%– vs +0.1% | +3.8%– vs -0.1% | +11.2%– vs -1.5% | +5.3%– vs +6.3% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 17 | +0.2%M vs +0.1% | -0.8%M vs +0.4% | +4.0%M vs +1.4% | +5.3%M vs +0.7% |
| Below its 50-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 17 | +0.2%M vs 0.0% | -0.8%M vs +0.2% | +4.0%M vs +1.1% | +5.3%M vs -0.2% |
| Below its 20-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where ISRG stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest overbought readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2025 | Oct 22 @ $527.03 | RSI 77.7, +13.9% on the day | +4.6% | +2.0% | +4.8% | -0.6% |
| May 13, 2025 | May 13 @ $563.95 | RSI 70.4, +0.5% on the day | +0.4% | -1.2% | -9.0% | -14.5% |
| Jan 16, 2025 | Jan 16 @ $584.08 | RSI 70.3, +0.7% on the day | +1.5% | 0.0% | +2.9% | -17.4% |
| Nov 8, 2024 | Nov 8 @ $536.45 | RSI 70.3, +2.3% on the day | -0.1% | -1.6% | +0.3% | +9.9% |
| Aug 21, 2024 | Aug 21 @ $487.42 | RSI 70.3, +0.9% on the day | +0.6% | -1.1% | -0.2% | +10.5% |
| Jun 25, 2024 | Jun 25 @ $442.31 | RSI 74.0, +3.1% on the day | +0.1% | -0.8% | -1.3% | +9.5% |
| Jun 6, 2024 | Jun 6 @ $418.15 | RSI 70.5, +0.2% on the day | -0.1% | +1.1% | +5.8% | +12.8% |
| Mar 1, 2024 | Mar 1 @ $397.90 | RSI 70.5, +3.2% on the day | +0.7% | -1.5% | -3.9% | +1.1% |
| Jan 10, 2024 | Jan 10 @ $364.45 | RSI 75.3, +10.2% on the day | -0.6% | +2.1% | +6.5% | +7.6% |
| Dec 13, 2023 | Dec 13 @ $328.96 | RSI 74.4, +2.6% on the day | -0.8% | -1.1% | +10.1% | +20.5% |
| Nov 20, 2023 | Nov 20 @ $311.34 | RSI 71.9, +2.0% on the day | +0.2% | -0.1% | +4.5% | +25.0% |
| Jun 29, 2023 | Jun 29 @ $338.49 | RSI 73.5, +1.6% on the day | +1.0% | -2.1% | -4.2% | -12.5% |
| Jun 5, 2023 | Jun 5 @ $317.49 | RSI 71.5, +1.7% on the day | -0.6% | -1.2% | +4.0% | -3.1% |
| Apr 17, 2023 | Apr 17 @ $268.89 | RSI 70.7, +0.7% on the day | +0.1% | +11.7% | +14.0% | +32.0% |
| Dec 1, 2022 | Dec 1 @ $274.49 | RSI 70.5, +1.5% on the day | -0.8% | -0.9% | -3.2% | -14.4% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.