ISRG
Reddit attention is surging
- ISRG +0.97% on the last session vs SPY −0.09%: +1.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Tue after the close: EPS $2.64 expected (24 analysts); it moved ±6.7% on average after its last 8 reports.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Barclays started coverage at Overweight, target $485.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ISRG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
427.95 +1.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
437.68 +4.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 424.32 · prior close 420.24 | |
| Bargain buy side |
412.67 -1.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
403.50 -4.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 410.24 | 2 in 10 days | 430.48 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 412.67 | 3 in 10 days | 427.95 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 414.95 | 4 in 10 days | 425.60 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 398.21 | 2 in 10 weeks | 443.49 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 403.50 | 3 in 10 weeks | 437.68 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 408.50 | 4 in 10 weeks | 432.32 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ISRG's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ISRG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 685.00 +61.4% |
| All-time closing high Jan 22, 2025 |
610.45 +43.9% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 6, 2026 |
592.85 +39.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 478.10 +12.7% |
| 200-day average | 440.35 +3.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 437.68 +3.1% |
| Now | 424.32 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
420.24 -1.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 403.50 -4.9% |
| 50-day average | 390.54 -8.0% |
| 52-week closing low Jul 23, 2026 |
332.02 -21.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 324.00 -23.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 26 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.