IT
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- IT −4.15% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −4.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 2): After its 60 big drops in the past 5 years, IT typically lost 0.3% over the next week (median) and was higher only 45% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -3.3% and +4.0%. An ordinary week: +0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big drops, that ranks #347 of 500.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#190 H | +0.1%#372 H | +0.1%#391 H | -2.3%#457 M |
| Big drop latest session (-3.0% or worse) | 61 | +0.1%#261 H | -0.3%#347 H | +0.5%#317 H | -3.2%#486 M |
| Big gain (+2.4% or better) | 61 | 0.0%#318 H | +0.1%#337 H | +0.4%#357 H | -4.7%#441 M |
| Earnings beat | 20 | 0.0%#289 H | +0.3%#269 H | +0.5%#343 H | +0.8%#310 M |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 10 | +0.1%#227 M | -1.3%#355 M | +0.8%#231 M | +0.6%#313 L |
| 52-week low | 8 | +0.7%#111 M | +3.5%#77 M | +4.9%#108 M | -1.5%#126 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 10 | +1.0%#70 M | +1.7%#5 M | +4.9%#109 M | +14.2%#43 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 8 | +0.3%#221 M | +2.4%#29 M | +5.4%#21 M | +17.9%#11 L |
| RSI oversold | 14 | +0.1%#251 M | +1.3%#172 M | +1.7%#258 M | -2.7%#330 M |
| RSI overbought | 15 | -0.2%#325 M | -2.3%#449 M | -3.5%#479 M | -1.0%#436 M |
| Reddit spike | 2 | +0.2%– | -1.4%– | +4.4%– | +8.1%– |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is IT's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
52-week high
A new 52-week closing high.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 10 | +0.06% (-0.9 to +0.5) | Medium | #227 of 482 | 50% | -0.32% |
-3%
+2%
|
|
| 1 week | 10 | -1.30% (-5.2 to +0.8) | Medium | #355 of 482 | 40% | -1.47% |
-6%
+6%
|
|
| 1 month | 10 | +0.82% (-3.5 to +3.1) | Medium | #231 of 480 | 50% | -1.41% |
-8%
+12%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 10 ≈6 indep. | +0.61% (-5.3 to +3.2) | Low | #313 of 455 | 50% | -5.82% |
-11%
+19%
|
Range of outcomes: all of IT's new 52-week highs in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
52-week high by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 10 | +0.1%M vs +0.1% | -1.3%M vs +0.2% | +0.8%M vs +0.5% | +0.6%L vs +3.1% |
| Below its 200-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 10 | +0.1%M vs +0.1% | -1.3%M vs 0.0% | +0.8%M vs -0.8% | +0.6%L vs +0.3% |
| Below its 50-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 10 | +0.1%M vs +0.1% | -1.3%M vs +0.1% | +0.8%M vs -0.8% | +0.6%L vs -1.3% |
| Below its 20-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where IT stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest new 52-week highs
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2024 | Nov 13 @ $551.80 | +0.2% on the day | -2.7% | -6.1% | -7.9% | -7.0% |
| Oct 14, 2024 | Oct 14 @ $527.30 | +1.2% on the day | +0.5% | +0.8% | +4.4% | -3.4% |
| Sep 12, 2024 | Sep 12 @ $505.67 | +1.2% on the day | +1.0% | +1.5% | +3.1% | +2.5% |
| Jul 30, 2024 | Jul 30 @ $498.77 | +5.9% on the day | +0.5% | -5.2% | -3.5% | +3.2% |
| Mar 1, 2024 | Mar 1 @ $471.48 | +1.3% on the day | -0.4% | -1.7% | -0.4% | -11.0% |
| Jan 22, 2024 | Jan 22 @ $468.00 | +0.7% on the day | -0.4% | -0.9% | -5.8% | -5.3% |
| Dec 6, 2023 | Dec 6 @ $442.00 | +1.6% on the day | +0.9% | +5.4% | -1.4% | +4.9% |
| Nov 3, 2023 | Nov 3 @ $386.71 | +14.6% on the day | +1.5% | +6.4% | +12.4% | +19.4% |
| Jun 16, 2023 | Jun 16 @ $356.54 | +0.1% on the day | -0.9% | -5.5% | +3.1% | -1.3% |
| Nov 10, 2022 | Nov 10 @ $340.90 | +5.3% on the day | -1.7% | -2.4% | +2.1% | +3.1% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.