ITRI
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- ITRI −0.81% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: −0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ITRI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
85.98 +1.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
87.94 +4.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 83.74 · prior close 84.42 | |
| Bargain buy side |
82.89 -1.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
81.04 -4.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 82.40 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 86.49 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 82.89 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 85.98 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 83.35 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 85.50 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 79.98 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 89.11 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 81.04 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 87.94 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 82.05 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 86.86 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ITRI's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -3.2% | -1.4% | — | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -4.4% | +2.7% | -5.0% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | -2.6% | -0.1% | -5.7% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -4.4% | +3.2% | -3.0% | — |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -2.4% | +0.6% | +18.0% | +2.2% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -3.2% | -0.5% | +4.7% | +17.4% |
| May 15, 2026 | -2.8% | +4.8% | +2.3% | +27.0% |
| May 7, 2026 | -2.2% | +0.5% | +0.8% | +27.9% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among ITRI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jul 30, 2025 |
138.42 +65.3% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 29, 2025 |
138.18 +65.0% |
| 50-day average | 93.78 +12.0% |
| 200-day average | 91.35 +9.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 87.94 +5.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
84.42 +0.8% |
| Now | 83.74 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 81.04 -3.2% |
| 52-week closing low May 19, 2026 |
78.02 -6.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 33 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.