IVR
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- IVR +2.07% on the last session vs SPY +0.29%: +1.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices IVR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
5.64 +1.4% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
5.74 +3.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 5.68 · prior close 5.56 | |
| Bargain buy side |
5.48 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
5.38 -3.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 5.46 | 2 in 10 days | 5.67 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 5.48 | 3 in 10 days | 5.64 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 5.50 | 4 in 10 days | 5.62 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 5.33 | 2 in 10 weeks | 5.80 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 5.38 | 3 in 10 weeks | 5.74 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 5.44 | 4 in 10 weeks | 5.69 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From IVR's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | -4.1% | -2.4% | — | — |
| Apr 7, 2025 | -5.5% | -1.5% | +12.0% | +23.5% |
| Oct 13, 2023 | -3.9% | -11.0% | -9.4% | +14.4% |
| Jun 8, 2022 | -6.7% | -32.9% | -6.0% | +4.4% |
| Apr 11, 2022 | -0.5% | -9.0% | -18.0% | -23.0% |
| Feb 22, 2022 | -5.4% | -7.1% | -5.3% | -21.0% |
| Jan 20, 2022 | -1.9% | -2.7% | -8.8% | -25.9% |
| Dec 14, 2021 | -2.4% | -2.4% | -0.5% | -21.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among IVR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 20, 2020 |
64.81 +1042.1% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 16, 2026 |
8.19 +44.3% |
| 200-day average | 7.27 +28.0% |
| 50-day average | 6.61 +16.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 5.74 +1.2% |
| Now | 5.68 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
5.56 -2.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
5.56 -2.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 5.38 -5.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 17 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.