IVV
Moving with the market
- IVV +0.04% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −0.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices IVV only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
777.71 +0.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
783.47 +1.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 773.41 · prior close 773.09 | |
| Bargain buy side |
768.49 -0.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
762.85 -1.3% ↑ more often while near its 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 29% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 767.01 | 2 in 10 days | 779.22 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 768.49 | 3 in 10 days | 777.71 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 769.88 | 4 in 10 days | 776.31 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 759.56 | 2 in 10 weeks↑ 20% vs 18% | 786.87 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 762.85 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 29% vs 27% | 783.47 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 765.94 | 4 in 10 weeks↑ 44% vs 43% | 780.31 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From IVV's daily swings (about 0.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | -1.2% | +0.5% | +3.7% | — |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -1.2% | -0.8% | +0.4% | +3.2% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -2.6% | +0.6% | +1.4% | +4.7% |
| May 15, 2026 | -1.2% | +0.9% | +1.6% | +4.8% |
| Mar 26, 2026 | -1.8% | +1.7% | +10.9% | +13.0% |
| Mar 18, 2026 | -1.4% | -0.5% | +7.6% | +12.3% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | -1.3% | -1.5% | -1.7% | +10.0% |
| Feb 23, 2026 | -1.0% | +0.6% | -4.0% | +9.6% |
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 29% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among IVV's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 783.47 +1.3% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 6, 2026 |
782.54 +1.2% |
| Now | 773.41 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
773.09 0.0% |
| 50-day average | 770.78 -0.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 762.85 -1.4% |
| 200-day average | 724.45 -6.3% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
631.40 -18.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 26 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.