J
Analyst cuts weighing on the stock
- J −1.23% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −1.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 13): After its 66 big gains in the past 5 years, J was higher a day later 38 times out of 66; half the outcomes fell between -0.7% and +1.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Truist Securities maintained Hold, lowered target $161 → $160.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices J only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
144.08 +1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
146.69 +3.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 140.25 · prior close 142.00 | |
| Bargain buy side |
139.95 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
137.46 -3.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 139.29 | 2 in 10 days | 144.76 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 139.95 | 3 in 10 days | 144.08 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 140.57 | 4 in 10 days | 143.45 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 136.02 | 2 in 10 weeks | 148.24 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 137.46 | 3 in 10 weeks | 146.69 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 138.82 | 4 in 10 weeks | 145.25 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From J's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among J's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 181.00 +29.1% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 21, 2025 |
162.71 +16.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 162.47 +15.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 146.69 +4.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 144.00 +2.7% |
| 50-day average | 143.46 +2.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
142.00 +1.2% |
| Now | 140.25 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 137.46 -2.0% |
| 200-day average | 132.81 -5.3% |
| 52-week closing low May 13, 2026 |
106.67 -23.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.