JBL
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- JBL −3.29% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: −3.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (-3.3% today so far, past its big-drop line of -2.9%): After its 61 big drops in the past 5 years, JBL was higher a month later 40 times out of 61; half the outcomes fell between -3.9% and +9.9%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices JBL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
304.13 +3.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
317.26 +7.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 284.24 · prior close 293.91 | |
| Bargain buy side |
284.03 -3.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
272.28 -7.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 280.90 | 2 in 10 days | 307.53 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 284.03 | 3 in 10 days | 304.13 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 286.99 | 4 in 10 days | 301.00 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 265.60 | 2 in 10 weeks | 325.23 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 272.28 | 3 in 10 weeks | 317.26 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 278.66 | 4 in 10 weeks | 310.00 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From JBL's daily swings (about 3.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | -10.0% | +4.4% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -6.1% | +1.7% | +6.4% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -3.4% | +3.0% | +5.8% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -8.5% | -8.8% | -12.6% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -2.9% | +0.8% | -2.4% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -3.8% | +4.9% | +18.3% | -4.3% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -5.1% | +1.8% | +5.5% | -6.3% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | -4.3% | -5.7% | -15.5% | -11.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among JBL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 475.00 +67.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 425.00 +49.5% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 15, 2026 |
385.55 +35.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 365.00 +28.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 317.26 +11.6% |
| 50-day average | 314.61 +10.7% |
| 200-day average | 304.96 +7.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
293.91 +3.4% |
| Now | 284.24 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 272.28 -4.2% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
192.34 -32.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 33 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.