JBLU
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- JBLU +2.99% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +2.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices JBLU only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
3.13 +4.1% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
3.29 +9.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 3.10 · prior close 3.01 | |
| Bargain buy side |
2.89 -3.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
2.75 -8.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 2.86 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 3.17 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 2.89 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 3.13 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 2.93 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 3.09 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 2.67 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 3.39 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 2.75 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 3.29 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 2.83 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 3.20 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From JBLU's daily swings (about 4.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -5.7% | — | — | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | -7.1% | -7.1% | -22.3% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -4.7% | +11.2% | -14.5% | — |
| Jul 14, 2026 | -4.8% | +0.4% | +8.4% | -32.1% |
| Jun 29, 2026 | -6.2% | +1.6% | +1.6% | -25.0% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -6.3% | +11.3% | +21.5% | -4.8% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | -5.9% | -7.6% | +15.0% | -10.7% |
| May 12, 2026 | -4.6% | -7.4% | +5.3% | +22.2% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -1.5% | -24.2% | — | — |
| Apr 3, 2025 | -17.3% | -11.5% | +12.0% | +3.1% |
| Oct 27, 2023 | -3.3% | +6.3% | +5.8% | +26.9% |
| Sep 26, 2023 | -1.3% | +2.7% | -4.3% | +30.5% |
| Aug 24, 2023 | -2.4% | -3.6% | -27.5% | -31.4% |
| Dec 28, 2022 | -3.0% | +14.2% | +26.8% | +14.7% |
| Oct 7, 2022 | -4.9% | +0.9% | +16.2% | +10.6% |
| Aug 31, 2022 | -2.9% | +3.5% | -14.9% | +2.2% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among JBLU's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 9, 2003 |
31.23 +907.3% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 18, 2026 |
6.46 +108.4% |
| 200-day average | 5.03 +62.3% |
| 50-day average | 4.58 +47.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 3.29 +6.1% |
| Now | 3.10 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
3.01 -2.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
3.01 -2.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 2.75 -11.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 24 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.