JD
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- JD +2.36% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +2.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Not a group move: its china tech peers +0.3% (+0.2 pts vs SPY).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices JD only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
27.03 +1.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
27.47 +2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 27.31 · prior close 26.68 | |
| Bargain buy side |
26.34 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
25.92 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 26.23 | 2 in 10 days | 27.14 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 26.34 | 3 in 10 days | 27.03 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 26.44 | 4 in 10 days | 26.92 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 25.67 | 2 in 10 weeks | 27.73 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 25.92 | 3 in 10 weeks | 27.47 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 26.15 | 4 in 10 weeks | 27.23 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From JD's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among JD's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 17, 2021 |
93.64 +242.9% |
| 52-week closing high May 13, 2026 |
33.77 +23.7% |
| 200-day average | 28.46 +4.2% |
| 50-day average | 28.06 +2.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 27.47 +0.6% |
| Now | 27.31 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
26.68 -2.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 25.92 -5.1% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 4, 2026 |
24.53 -10.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 12 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.