JJSF
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- JJSF +1.50% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +1.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices JJSF only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
79.67 +1.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
81.17 +3.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 79.65 · prior close 78.47 | |
| Bargain buy side |
77.29 -1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
75.86 -3.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 76.91 | 2 in 10 days | 80.06 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 77.29 | 3 in 10 days | 79.67 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 77.65 | 4 in 10 days | 79.30 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 75.03 | 2 in 10 weeks | 82.07 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 75.86 | 3 in 10 weeks | 81.17 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 76.64 | 4 in 10 weeks | 80.34 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From JJSF's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | -2.2% | -2.6% | -2.9% | — |
| Aug 17, 2026 | -2.3% | +2.8% | -6.5% | — |
| Jul 30, 2026 | -3.0% | +19.5% | +16.1% | — |
| Jun 25, 2026 | -2.2% | +3.7% | +6.1% | +6.4% |
| Jun 15, 2026 | -2.1% | -6.0% | +1.5% | +5.8% |
| May 4, 2026 | -3.1% | -16.6% | -10.2% | -5.8% |
| Apr 15, 2026 | -2.7% | +2.6% | -11.0% | -0.5% |
| Mar 17, 2026 | -5.0% | -1.2% | +2.6% | -1.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among JJSF's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 4, 2019 |
168.40 +111.4% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 20, 2026 |
95.56 +20.0% |
| 50-day average | 83.20 +4.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 81.17 +1.9% |
| 200-day average | 80.60 +1.2% |
| Now | 79.65 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
78.47 -1.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 75.86 -4.8% |
| 52-week closing low May 12, 2026 |
68.52 -14.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 41 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.