JNJ
Moving with its group (XLV +2.5%)
- JNJ +1.38% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +1.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 3Q2026 Oct 13 before the open: EPS $2.59 vs $2.52 expected (beat, +$0.07, +2.7%); revenue $25.4B (+0.1% in line). The stock moved -5.7% on Tue's session (-5.7 pts vs SPY).
- The health care ETF (XLV) +2.5% (+2.4 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, earnings beat (Oct 13): After its 19 earnings beats in the past 5 years, JNJ was higher a week later 13 times out of 19; half the outcomes fell between -0.3% and +2.7%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 0 negative); latest: RBC Capital maintained Outperform, raised target $287 → $290.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices JNJ only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
258.53 +1.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
264.35 +4.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 257.40 · prior close 253.91 | |
| Bargain buy side |
249.37 -1.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
243.88 -4.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 247.92 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 260.05 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 249.37 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 258.53 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 250.74 | 4 in 10 days | 257.12 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 240.71 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 267.84 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 243.88 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 264.35 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 246.87 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 261.15 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From JNJ's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | +1.9% | — | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | +2.0% | -1.5% | -4.6% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | +3.3% | +1.2% | +0.2% | — |
| Jul 22, 2026 | +2.0% | +3.9% | +4.6% | — |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +3.6% | -2.3% | -3.3% | -1.2% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +3.4% | +6.2% | +8.4% | +13.1% |
| Jun 4, 2026 | +2.2% | +4.5% | +17.1% | +22.6% |
| May 13, 2026 | +2.7% | -0.5% | +5.1% | +14.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among JNJ's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 320.00 +24.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 279.82 +8.7% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Sep 3, 2026 |
278.43 +8.2% |
| 50-day average | 265.00 +3.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 264.35 +2.7% |
| Now | 257.40 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
253.91 -1.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 243.88 -5.3% |
| 200-day average | 242.06 -6.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 190.00 -26.2% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 5, 2025 |
181.90 -29.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 65 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.