JPM
Moving with the market
- JPM −0.28% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 3Q2026 Oct 13 before the open: EPS $5.75 vs $5.94 expected (miss, −$0.19, −3.2%); revenue $50.2B (-2.0% miss). The stock moved -0.9% on Tue's session (-0.8 pts vs SPY).
- Guidance: JPMorgan Chase reported Q3 2026 results but provided no forward guidance for upcoming periods. (release)
- Filing: 8-K: Reg FD disclosure (item 7.01) (filing)
- Aftermath, mention spike (trendy) (Oct 14): After its 30 mention spikes in the past 5 years, JPM was higher a month later 21 times out of 30; half the outcomes fell between -0.8% and +8.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 4 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 58% positive over the week.
- 6 analyst actions in the past 10 days (4 positive, 1 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Overweight, raised target $420 → $425.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices JPM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
338.54 +1.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
342.61 +2.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 334.34 · prior close 335.28 | |
| Bargain buy side |
332.05 -1.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
328.10 -2.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 331.01 | 2 in 10 days | 339.61 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 332.05 | 3 in 10 days | 338.54 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 333.03 | 4 in 10 days | 337.55 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 325.81 | 2 in 10 weeks | 345.03 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 328.10 | 3 in 10 weeks | 342.61 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 330.26 | 4 in 10 weeks | 340.38 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From JPM's daily swings (about 1.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among JPM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 425.00 +27.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 372.50 +11.4% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 12, 2026 |
363.37 +8.7% |
| 50-day average | 346.96 +3.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 342.61 +2.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
335.28 +0.3% |
| Now | 334.34 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 328.10 -1.9% |
| 200-day average | 319.35 -4.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 312.00 -6.7% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 27, 2026 |
278.75 -16.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.