KDP
Moving with its group (XLP +1.3%)
- KDP +2.10% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +2.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer staples ETF (XLP) +1.3% (+1.3 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.1% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.7%): After its 73 big gains in the past 5 years, KDP was higher a day later 39 times out of 73; half the outcomes fell between -0.8% and +0.7%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices KDP only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
33.69 +1.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
34.40 +3.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 33.81 · prior close 33.12 | |
| Bargain buy side |
32.56 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
31.89 -3.7% ↑ more often while near its 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 29% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 32.38 | 2 in 10 days | 33.87 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 32.56 | 3 in 10 days | 33.69 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 32.73 | 4 in 10 days | 33.51 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 31.49 | 2 in 10 weeks↑ 20% vs 18% | 34.83 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 31.89 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 29% vs 27% | 34.40 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 32.25 | 4 in 10 weeks↑ 44% vs 43% | 34.01 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From KDP's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 29% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among KDP's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 42.00 +24.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 36.21 +7.1% |
| All-time closing high Aug 16, 2022 |
35.64 +5.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 34.40 +1.7% |
| Now | 33.81 |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
33.81 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
33.12 -2.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 31.89 -5.7% |
| 50-day average | 31.29 -7.5% |
| 200-day average | 29.21 -13.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 29.00 -14.2% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 2, 2026 |
24.95 -26.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 18 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.