KEEL
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- KEEL −7.06% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −7.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.8× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices KEEL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
2.69 +5.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
2.87 +12.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 2.37 · prior close 2.55 | |
| Bargain buy side |
2.42 -5.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
2.26 -11.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 2.38 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 2.74 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 2.42 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 2.69 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 2.46 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 2.65 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 2.18 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 2.98 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 2.26 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 2.87 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 2.35 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 2.77 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From KEEL's daily swings (about 5.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | -7.3% | +4.9% | -11.3% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -8.3% | +7.8% | +11.2% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -16.2% | +11.1% | +14.2% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | -12.4% | +10.9% | +9.1% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -11.4% | -6.8% | -23.7% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -9.5% | +22.2% | -10.8% | -35.2% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | -14.7% | +1.3% | -8.5% | -25.1% |
| Jun 24, 2026 | -7.3% | -12.1% | -30.4% | -34.5% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among KEEL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 9, 2021 |
8.87 +274.3% |
| 52-week closing high Jun 22, 2026 |
6.66 +181.0% |
| 200-day average | 3.47 +46.5% |
| 50-day average | 3.43 +44.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 2.87 +21.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
2.55 +7.6% |
| Now | 2.37 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 2.26 -4.4% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 5, 2026 |
1.71 -28.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 7 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.