KEY
Moving with its group (KRE +1.3%)
- KEY +0.96% on the last session vs SPY −0.04%: +1.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Tue before the open: EPS $0.46 expected (14 analysts); it moved ±2.2% on average after its last 8 reports.
- The regional bank ETF (KRE) +1.3% (+1.3 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: UBS maintained Buy, lowered target $27.00 → $25.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices KEY only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
20.02 +1.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
20.30 +2.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 19.98 · prior close 19.79 | |
| Bargain buy side |
19.57 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
19.30 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 19.50 | 2 in 10 days | 20.09 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 19.57 | 3 in 10 days | 20.02 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 19.63 | 4 in 10 days | 19.95 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 19.14 | 2 in 10 weeks | 20.46 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 19.30 | 3 in 10 weeks | 20.30 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 19.44 | 4 in 10 weeks | 20.14 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From KEY's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among KEY's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 43.00 +115.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 25.11 +25.6% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 16, 2026 |
23.76 +18.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 22.00 +10.1% |
| 50-day average | 21.26 +6.4% |
| 200-day average | 21.24 +6.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 20.30 +1.6% |
| Now | 19.98 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
19.79 -1.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 19.30 -3.4% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
16.12 -19.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 39 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.