KGS
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- KGS −4.59% on the last session vs SPY −0.09%: −4.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices KGS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
51.42 +2.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
53.13 +6.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 47.77 · prior close 50.07 | |
| Bargain buy side |
48.76 -2.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
47.19 -5.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 48.34 | 2 in 10 days | 51.86 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 48.76 | 3 in 10 days | 51.42 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 49.15 | 4 in 10 days | 51.00 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 46.29 | 2 in 10 weeks | 54.16 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 47.19 | 3 in 10 weeks | 53.13 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 48.04 | 4 in 10 weeks | 52.18 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From KGS's daily swings (about 2.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | -2.8% | -5.4% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -11.3% | -0.7% | -8.2% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -4.1% | +8.5% | -10.3% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -4.9% | -6.3% | -7.3% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -2.8% | +7.3% | +7.5% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -9.5% | -0.6% | +0.9% | — |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -3.6% | -7.2% | -18.9% | -26.3% |
| May 29, 2026 | -2.9% | -2.6% | +12.4% | -13.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among KGS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 26, 2026 |
75.70 +58.5% |
| 200-day average | 58.14 +21.7% |
| 50-day average | 57.81 +21.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 53.13 +11.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
50.07 +4.8% |
| Now | 47.77 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 47.19 -1.2% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 17, 2025 |
32.17 -32.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 3 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.