KKR
Moving with its group (XLF +0.9%)
- KKR +1.00% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +1.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- The financials ETF (XLF) +0.9% (+0.8 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 13): After its 58 big drops in the past 5 years, KKR was higher a day later 35 times out of 58; half the outcomes fell between -1.4% and +1.8%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Overweight, lowered target $135 → $130.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices KKR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
87.31 +2.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
89.48 +4.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 86.46 · prior close 85.60 | |
| Bargain buy side |
83.92 -2.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
81.89 -4.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 83.38 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 87.88 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 83.92 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 87.31 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 84.43 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 86.79 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 80.72 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 90.78 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 81.89 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 89.48 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 83.00 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 88.29 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From KKR's daily swings (about 2.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among KKR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 166.00 +92.0% |
| All-time closing high Jan 31, 2025 |
165.19 +91.1% |
| 52-week closing high Dec 11, 2025 |
141.96 +64.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 124.10 +43.5% |
| 50-day average | 100.83 +16.6% |
| 200-day average | 100.80 +16.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 97.00 +12.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 89.48 +3.5% |
| Now | 86.46 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
85.60 -1.0% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 12, 2026 |
83.56 -3.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 81.89 -5.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 16 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.