KLAC
Moving with its chip equipment peers
- KLAC −3.52% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −3.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Chip equipment basket -3.7% (-3.8 pts vs SPY; TER -6.0%, LRCX -4.6%, AMAT -3.7%, ASML -0.4%): the stock moved with its peers. Overnight: Tokyo Electron (Tokyo) -8.0%.
- Aftermath, crossed below 200-day avg (Oct 14): After its 7 crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, KLAC was higher a day later 5 times out of 7; half the outcomes fell between -0.3% and +4.3%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight, lowered target $253 → $227.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices KLAC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
183.81 +2.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
190.18 +6.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 172.51 · prior close 178.81 | |
| Bargain buy side |
173.95 -2.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
168.12 -6.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 172.40 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 185.46 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 173.95 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 183.81 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 175.41 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 182.28 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 164.78 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 194.03 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 168.12 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 190.18 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 171.29 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 186.66 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From KLAC's daily swings (about 2.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among KLAC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 325.00 +88.4% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 30, 2026 |
301.37 +74.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 232.77 +34.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 190.18 +10.2% |
| 50-day average | 187.38 +8.6% |
| 200-day average | 180.51 +4.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
178.81 +3.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 175.00 +1.4% |
| Now | 172.51 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 168.12 -2.5% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
102.02 -40.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 46 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.