KMB
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- KMB +4.01% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +3.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+4.0% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.5%): After its 69 big gains in the past 5 years, KMB was higher a day later 40 times out of 69; half the outcomes fell between -0.6% and +0.9%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Wells Fargo maintained Equal-Weight, lowered target $105 → $100.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.6× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices KMB only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
100.66 +1.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
102.22 +2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 103.39 · prior close 99.41 | |
| Bargain buy side |
98.18 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
96.68 -2.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 97.78 | 2 in 10 days | 101.06 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 98.18 | 3 in 10 days | 100.66 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 98.55 | 4 in 10 days | 100.28 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 95.81 | 2 in 10 weeks | 103.15 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 96.68 | 3 in 10 weeks | 102.22 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 97.50 | 4 in 10 weeks | 101.36 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From KMB's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among KMB's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 162.00 +56.7% |
| All-time closing high Mar 10, 2025 |
137.56 +33.0% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 17, 2025 |
115.53 +11.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 115.27 +11.5% |
| Now | 103.39 |
| 50-day average | 102.37 -1.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 102.22 -1.1% |
| 200-day average | 100.43 -2.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
99.41 -3.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 96.68 -6.5% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 7, 2026 |
90.70 -12.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 90.00 -13.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.