KMI
Moving with its group (XLE -1.4%)
- KMI −1.63% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −1.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Wed after the close: EPS $0.33 expected (13 analysts); it moved ±1.7% on average after its last 8 reports.
- The energy ETF (XLE) -1.4% (-1.5 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big drop (-1.6% today so far, past its big-drop line of -1.5%): After its 64 big drops in the past 5 years, KMI was higher a week later 43 times out of 64; half the outcomes fell between -0.4% and +3.4%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices KMI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
33.77 +1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
34.29 +2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 32.81 · prior close 33.35 | |
| Bargain buy side |
32.94 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
32.44 -2.7% ↑ more often while near its 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 29% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 32.81 | 2 in 10 days | 33.90 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 32.94 | 3 in 10 days | 33.77 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 33.06 | 4 in 10 days | 33.64 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 32.15 | 2 in 10 weeks↑ 20% vs 18% | 34.60 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 32.44 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 29% vs 27% | 34.29 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 32.71 | 4 in 10 weeks↑ 44% vs 43% | 34.00 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From KMI's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 29% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among KMI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 43.00 +31.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 36.09 +10.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 34.29 +4.5% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high May 19, 2026 |
33.99 +3.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
33.35 +1.7% |
| Now | 32.81 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 32.44 -1.1% |
| 50-day average | 31.61 -3.6% |
| 200-day average | 31.35 -4.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 31.00 -5.5% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 24, 2025 |
24.86 -24.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 16 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.