KO
Moving with the market
- KO +0.63% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +0.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer staples ETF (XLP) +1.1% (+1.0 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (RSI 72 today so far, above 70): After its 16 overbought readings in the past 5 years, KO was higher a day later 12 times out of 16; half the outcomes fell between +0.0% and +0.9%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Wells Fargo maintained Overweight, lowered target $95.00 → $90.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices KO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
92.75 +1.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
93.97 +2.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 92.36 · prior close 91.78 | |
| Bargain buy side |
90.82 -1.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
89.64 -2.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 90.51 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 93.07 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 90.82 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 92.75 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 91.11 | 4 in 10 days | 92.46 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 88.96 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 94.69 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 89.64 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 93.97 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 90.28 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 93.30 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From KO's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | +2.3% | — | — | — |
| Sep 22, 2026 | +1.7% | -2.0% | — | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | +2.1% | +3.2% | -0.3% | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | +2.2% | +3.3% | +9.0% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +3.0% | -4.4% | +3.3% | +8.7% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | +2.7% | +0.4% | +6.8% | +6.9% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | +3.5% | +4.0% | +5.6% | +11.5% |
| May 27, 2026 | +1.4% | -3.5% | +1.9% | +11.1% |
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | +1.7% | -0.3% | -1.7% | — |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +3.5% | -0.8% | +3.2% | +2.9% |
| May 18, 2026 | +0.5% | -0.9% | -0.9% | +10.1% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | +1.3% | -5.5% | -5.8% | -2.5% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | +1.4% | +2.6% | +10.8% | +5.9% |
| Nov 21, 2025 | +2.4% | -0.7% | -3.5% | +11.1% |
| Apr 3, 2025 | +2.6% | -3.3% | -2.0% | -2.3% |
| Mar 3, 2025 | +1.6% | -1.2% | +0.1% | +0.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among KO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 104.00 +12.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 94.43 +2.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 93.97 +1.7% |
| Now | 92.36 |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
92.36 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
91.78 -0.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 89.64 -2.9% |
| 50-day average | 88.02 -4.7% |
| 200-day average | 80.02 -13.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 75.00 -18.8% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2025 |
65.34 -29.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 65 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.