KR
Moving with the market
- KR −0.05% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: −0.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg (Oct 14): After its 12 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, KR was higher a day later 8 times out of 12; half the outcomes fell between -0.5% and +1.3%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices KR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
64.35 +2.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
65.95 +4.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 63.06 · prior close 63.09 | |
| Bargain buy side |
61.85 -2.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
60.36 -4.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 61.46 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 64.77 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 61.85 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 64.35 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 62.22 | 4 in 10 days | 63.97 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 59.50 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 66.90 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 60.36 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 65.95 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 61.17 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 65.07 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From KR's daily swings (about 2.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | +3.6% | — | — | — |
| Sep 24, 2026 | +2.2% | +1.0% | — | — |
| Sep 11, 2026 | +2.7% | +2.6% | +7.0% | — |
| Aug 21, 2026 | +2.8% | -0.3% | +1.1% | — |
| Aug 13, 2026 | +2.1% | -0.9% | +7.2% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | +2.0% | +1.5% | +4.6% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +3.6% | -4.9% | -2.6% | +8.4% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +3.5% | +4.0% | 0.0% | +2.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among KR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 85.00 +34.8% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Mar 13, 2026 |
74.69 +18.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 68.32 +8.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 65.95 +4.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
63.09 0.0% |
| Now | 63.06 |
| 200-day average | 62.87 -0.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 60.36 -4.3% |
| 50-day average | 58.66 -7.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 57.00 -9.6% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 30, 2026 |
55.15 -12.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 65 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.