KTOS
Reddit attention is surging
- KTOS +1.75% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +1.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices KTOS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
40.33 +2.5% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
41.60 +5.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 40.02 · prior close 39.33 | |
| Bargain buy side |
38.36 -2.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
37.18 -5.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 38.04 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 40.66 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 38.36 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 40.33 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 38.65 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 40.02 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 36.51 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 42.37 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 37.18 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 41.60 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 37.82 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 40.90 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From KTOS's daily swings (about 2.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | -2.3% | +1.5% | — | — |
| Jul 17, 2026 | -2.0% | +2.9% | +37.5% | — |
| Nov 22, 2022 | -1.9% | +2.8% | -0.6% | +40.2% |
| Oct 7, 2022 | -2.0% | -6.2% | +10.1% | +3.6% |
| Aug 31, 2022 | -1.6% | -3.5% | -19.0% | -24.1% |
| May 6, 2022 | -9.2% | -6.1% | +8.6% | +7.1% |
| Feb 23, 2022 | -7.8% | +28.7% | +39.4% | -9.5% |
| Jan 5, 2022 | -5.4% | -10.5% | -12.9% | +9.5% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among KTOS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 6, 2000 |
1,578.75 +3844.9% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 16, 2026 |
130.72 +226.6% |
| 200-day average | 67.37 +68.3% |
| 50-day average | 49.86 +24.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 41.60 +3.9% |
| Now | 40.02 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
39.33 -1.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
39.33 -1.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 37.18 -7.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 27 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.