KVUE
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- KVUE +3.16% on the last session vs SPY +0.13%: +3.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.2% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.8%): After its 40 big gains in the past 5 years, KVUE was higher a week later 15 times out of 40; half the outcomes fell between -1.9% and +2.3%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices KVUE only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
18.20 +1.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
18.45 +2.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 18.58 · prior close 18.01 | |
| Bargain buy side |
17.82 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
17.58 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 17.76 | 2 in 10 days | 18.27 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 17.82 | 3 in 10 days | 18.20 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 17.88 | 4 in 10 days | 18.14 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 17.45 | 2 in 10 weeks | 18.59 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 17.58 | 3 in 10 weeks | 18.45 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 17.71 | 4 in 10 weeks | 18.31 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From KVUE's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among KVUE's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high May 15, 2023 |
23.79 +28.0% |
| Highest analyst target | 23.00 +23.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 19.50 +5.0% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 2, 2026 |
19.38 +4.3% |
| Now | 18.58 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 18.45 -0.7% |
| 50-day average | 18.19 -2.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
18.01 -3.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 18.00 -3.1% |
| 200-day average | 17.60 -5.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 17.58 -5.4% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
13.30 -28.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 3 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.