LAZ
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- LAZ +4.82% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +4.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 before the open: EPS $0.60 expected (4 analysts).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices LAZ only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
35.46 +2.3% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
36.48 +5.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 36.33 · prior close 34.66 | |
| Bargain buy side |
33.88 -2.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
32.93 -5.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 33.63 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 35.73 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 33.88 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 35.46 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 34.11 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 35.22 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 32.39 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 37.09 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 32.93 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 36.48 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 33.45 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 35.92 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From LAZ's daily swings (about 2.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | -3.1% | -14.2% | -16.1% | — |
| Aug 20, 2026 | -5.4% | +1.1% | -14.7% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | -3.5% | +2.5% | 0.0% | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | -3.1% | +1.7% | +3.1% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -3.5% | -1.0% | +3.9% | -19.3% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -3.6% | +4.0% | +6.1% | -14.5% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -3.1% | -0.9% | +1.7% | -12.5% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -12.6% | +4.4% | -0.6% | +2.4% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | -5.2% | +0.6% | — | — |
| Apr 7, 2025 | -3.4% | +4.5% | +21.0% | +51.2% |
| Oct 25, 2023 | -4.2% | +1.3% | +1.9% | +45.9% |
| May 3, 2023 | -1.4% | -1.4% | +5.0% | +16.1% |
| Jun 16, 2022 | -4.1% | +8.8% | +10.3% | +16.9% |
| Feb 17, 2022 | -3.9% | -3.7% | -3.3% | -7.6% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among LAZ's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 6, 2024 |
56.23 +54.8% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 9, 2026 |
55.74 +53.4% |
| 200-day average | 44.28 +21.9% |
| 50-day average | 40.14 +10.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 36.48 +0.4% |
| Now | 36.33 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
34.66 -4.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
34.66 -4.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 32.93 -9.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 21 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.