LB
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- LB −2.59% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: −2.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.6× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices LB only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
84.75 +2.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
87.41 +5.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 80.52 · prior close 82.66 | |
| Bargain buy side |
80.62 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
78.17 -5.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 79.97 | 2 in 10 days | 85.44 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 80.62 | 3 in 10 days | 84.75 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 81.23 | 4 in 10 days | 84.11 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 76.76 | 2 in 10 weeks | 89.01 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 78.17 | 3 in 10 weeks | 87.41 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 79.50 | 4 in 10 weeks | 85.94 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From LB's daily swings (about 2.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | -5.2% | -0.7% | — | — |
| Aug 7, 2026 | -6.2% | +4.4% | +17.3% | — |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -8.8% | +8.4% | +7.2% | +12.4% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -5.4% | -1.4% | +10.9% | +23.3% |
| May 26, 2026 | -6.0% | -1.0% | -17.5% | +16.4% |
| Apr 9, 2026 | -7.0% | +8.7% | +1.7% | +20.2% |
| Mar 30, 2026 | -5.5% | +4.9% | +1.0% | +16.7% |
| Mar 16, 2026 | -4.9% | +1.6% | -5.0% | -5.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among LB's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 21, 2026 |
89.59 +11.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 87.41 +8.6% |
| 50-day average | 84.19 +4.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
82.66 +2.7% |
| Now | 80.52 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 78.17 -2.9% |
| 200-day average | 71.61 -11.1% |
| 52-week closing low Jan 7, 2026 |
44.00 -45.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 2 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.