LEN
Homebuilders surge as long-term rates retreat
- LEN +5.29% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +5.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Homebuilders: Long-term rates retreated, lifting homebuilder stocks including TOL, PHM, DHI, and LEN (Yahoo Finance). (Yahoo Finance)
- Homebuilders basket +3.3% (+3.2 pts vs SPY; DHI +4.0%, PHM +3.1%, TOL +2.7%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Aftermath, big gain (+5.3% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.6%): After its 58 big gains in the past 5 years, LEN was higher a day later 25 times out of 58; half the outcomes fell between -1.8% and +1.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Wells Fargo maintained Equal-Weight, lowered target $80.00 → $75.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices LEN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
75.38 +2.5% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
77.72 +5.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 77.42 · prior close 73.53 | |
| Bargain buy side |
71.73 -2.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
69.57 -5.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 71.15 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 75.98 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 71.73 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 75.38 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 72.27 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 74.81 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 68.32 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 79.13 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 69.57 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 77.72 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 70.74 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 76.43 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From LEN's daily swings (about 2.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2026 | -3.8% | -0.4% | -4.7% | — |
| May 4, 2026 | -4.6% | +3.2% | +6.0% | +3.8% |
| Mar 9, 2026 | -1.2% | -4.0% | -11.3% | -8.7% |
| Apr 16, 2025 | -2.2% | +6.8% | +9.4% | +7.6% |
| Mar 13, 2025 | -2.2% | +3.2% | -9.5% | -3.1% |
| Feb 7, 2025 | -4.2% | +1.6% | -0.4% | -10.5% |
| Dec 19, 2024 | -5.2% | -0.9% | +0.4% | -11.8% |
| Jun 13, 2022 | -6.0% | -6.2% | +11.3% | +6.5% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among LEN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 19, 2024 |
178.67 +130.8% |
| 52-week closing high Dec 3, 2025 |
130.21 +68.2% |
| Highest analyst target | 120.00 +55.0% |
| 200-day average | 91.59 +18.3% |
| 50-day average | 81.55 +5.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 77.87 +0.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 77.72 +0.4% |
| Now | 77.42 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
73.53 -5.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
73.53 -5.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 69.57 -10.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 63.00 -18.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.