LEU
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- LEU +1.58% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +1.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.7× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices LEU only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
125.81 +4.9% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
133.45 +11.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 121.85 · prior close 119.95 | |
| Bargain buy side |
114.36 -4.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
107.81 -10.1% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 112.60 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 127.77 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 114.36 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 125.81 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 116.03 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 124.01 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 104.14 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 138.15 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 107.81 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 133.45 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 111.35 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 129.21 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From LEU's daily swings (about 4.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | -8.6% | -9.7% | -14.1% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -9.8% | -1.1% | -21.4% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -8.8% | +0.2% | +21.2% | -8.7% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | -6.3% | +3.4% | -5.7% | -16.0% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -8.8% | -19.3% | -4.1% | -5.6% |
| May 7, 2026 | -10.8% | -6.8% | -20.6% | -7.2% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | -6.4% | +0.5% | -10.8% | -14.4% |
| Mar 30, 2026 | -7.9% | +2.9% | +13.9% | -0.4% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | -4.0% | +5.9% | -8.2% | — |
| Sep 6, 2024 | -5.0% | +11.8% | +82.9% | +122.9% |
| Aug 6, 2024 | -1.3% | +4.7% | +3.4% | +116.7% |
| May 9, 2022 | -22.9% | +9.5% | +67.0% | +94.6% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among LEU's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high May 23, 2007 |
6,821.43 +5498.2% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2025 |
436.00 +257.8% |
| 200-day average | 195.53 +60.5% |
| 50-day average | 162.12 +33.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 133.45 +9.5% |
| Now | 121.85 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
119.95 -1.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
119.95 -1.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 107.81 -11.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 28 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.