LEVI
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- LEVI +2.99% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +3.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.0% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.8%): After its 62 big gains in the past 5 years, LEVI was higher a week later 33 times out of 62; half the outcomes fell between -2.9% and +4.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 7 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 5 negative); latest: Wells Fargo maintained Equal-Weight, lowered target $25.00 → $20.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices LEVI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
19.92 +1.8% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
20.37 +4.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 20.16 · prior close 19.57 | |
| Bargain buy side |
19.22 -1.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
18.80 -3.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 19.11 | 2 in 10 days | 20.04 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 19.22 | 3 in 10 days | 19.92 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 19.33 | 4 in 10 days | 19.82 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 18.56 | 2 in 10 weeks | 20.63 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 18.80 | 3 in 10 weeks | 20.37 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 19.03 | 4 in 10 weeks | 20.12 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From LEVI's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among LEVI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 35.00 +73.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 26.80 +33.0% |
| All-time closing high May 3, 2021 |
26.51 +31.5% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 27, 2026 |
25.53 +26.7% |
| 200-day average | 21.53 +6.8% |
| 50-day average | 20.74 +2.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 20.37 +1.1% |
| Now | 20.16 |
| Lowest analyst target | 20.00 -0.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
19.57 -2.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 18.80 -6.7% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 13, 2026 |
17.69 -12.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 8 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.