LFUS
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- LFUS −4.48% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: −4.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.5× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices LFUS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
411.19 +2.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
423.94 +5.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 383.18 · prior close 401.16 | |
| Bargain buy side |
391.37 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
379.61 -5.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 388.25 | 2 in 10 days | 414.50 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 391.37 | 3 in 10 days | 411.19 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 394.31 | 4 in 10 days | 408.13 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 372.86 | 2 in 10 weeks | 431.61 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 379.61 | 3 in 10 weeks | 423.94 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 386.01 | 4 in 10 weeks | 416.91 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From LFUS's daily swings (about 2.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -4.3% | -7.7% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -8.3% | +3.4% | +4.7% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -3.8% | +3.4% | +5.8% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -7.3% | -7.2% | -8.0% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -2.7% | +19.0% | +7.0% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -3.2% | +3.3% | +13.8% | 0.0% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -3.3% | -6.8% | +0.4% | -3.6% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -4.5% | -2.5% | -11.1% | -10.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among LFUS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 22, 2026 |
488.16 +27.4% |
| 50-day average | 424.38 +10.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 423.94 +10.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
401.16 +4.7% |
| 200-day average | 393.23 +2.6% |
| Now | 383.18 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 379.61 -0.9% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
233.58 -39.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 34 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.