LGND
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- LGND +2.36% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +2.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices LGND only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
300.90 +2.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
308.37 +4.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 301.94 · prior close 294.99 | |
| Bargain buy side |
289.20 -2.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
282.19 -4.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 287.34 | 2 in 10 days | 302.84 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 289.20 | 3 in 10 days | 300.90 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 290.94 | 4 in 10 days | 299.10 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 278.16 | 2 in 10 weeks | 312.84 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 282.19 | 3 in 10 weeks | 308.37 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 286.01 | 4 in 10 weeks | 304.25 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From LGND's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | -3.1% | -2.6% | — | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -2.8% | +5.1% | -1.2% | — |
| Jul 14, 2026 | -2.7% | +1.5% | -2.6% | +3.4% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | -4.6% | +19.8% | +16.1% | +10.6% |
| May 15, 2026 | -2.6% | +7.6% | +19.7% | +36.8% |
| May 7, 2026 | -9.6% | +4.1% | +13.0% | +39.4% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | -3.9% | 0.0% | +1.0% | +24.0% |
| Apr 15, 2026 | -3.1% | +0.8% | -2.7% | +31.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among LGND's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 9, 2026 |
322.61 +6.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 308.37 +2.1% |
| Now | 301.94 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
294.99 -2.3% |
| 50-day average | 292.61 -3.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 282.19 -6.5% |
| 200-day average | 246.43 -18.4% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
180.77 -40.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 34 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.