LII
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- LII +2.78% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +2.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.8% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.5%): After its 61 big gains in the past 5 years, LII was higher a day later 36 times out of 61; half the outcomes fell between -1.1% and +1.2%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices LII only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
355.06 +1.8% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
362.89 +4.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 358.54 · prior close 348.84 | |
| Bargain buy side |
342.73 -1.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
335.33 -3.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 340.77 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 357.10 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 342.73 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 355.06 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 344.57 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 353.16 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 331.06 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 367.58 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 335.33 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 362.89 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 339.36 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 358.58 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From LII's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | -1.8% | — | — | — |
| Aug 31, 2026 | -2.7% | +0.7% | -6.9% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -21.0% | +3.9% | -9.0% | — |
| Mar 26, 2026 | -9.0% | +4.0% | +14.9% | +29.0% |
| Oct 22, 2025 | -10.2% | -1.1% | -9.9% | +3.7% |
| May 18, 2022 | -6.0% | +1.4% | -8.0% | +32.6% |
| Apr 11, 2022 | -3.0% | -0.3% | -15.3% | -12.2% |
| Feb 3, 2022 | -1.3% | -0.8% | -3.6% | -20.3% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among LII's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 25, 2024 |
664.62 +85.4% |
| Highest analyst target | 600.00 +67.3% |
| 52-week closing high Jun 30, 2026 |
570.79 +59.2% |
| 200-day average | 477.40 +33.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 472.64 +31.8% |
| 50-day average | 380.82 +6.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 375.00 +4.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 362.89 +1.2% |
| Now | 358.54 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
348.84 -2.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
348.84 -2.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 335.33 -6.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 27 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.