LLY
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- LLY −0.61% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −1.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: JP Morgan maintained Overweight, raised target $1,400 → $1,500.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#72 H | +0.8%#20 H | +2.3%#36 H | +8.1%#26 M |
| Big drop (-2.4% or worse) | 62 | +0.3%#130 H | +1.2%#99 H | +2.1%#144 H | +5.2%#201 M |
| Big gain (+2.7% or better) | 67 | -0.3%#479 H | +0.6%#134 H | +0.8%#313 H | +5.4%#163 M |
| Earnings beat | 14 | +0.9%#128 M | +4.2%#10 M | +6.5%#39 M | +11.3%#57 M |
| Earnings miss | 6 | -0.2%#184 L | -1.8%#195 L | +2.3%#106 L | +6.3%#90 L |
| 52-week high | 17 | +0.2%#88 M | +0.3%#159 M | +4.0%#86 M | +7.0%#83 M |
| 52-week low | 2 | +0.1%– | +4.2%– | +15.1%– | +20.3%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 8 | -0.2%#283 M | -2.1%#308 M | -1.0%#314 M | +3.2%#237 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 7 | 0.0%#299 L | +0.4%#223 L | -0.5%#381 L | +8.6%#188 L |
| RSI oversold | 8 | -0.2%#286 M | +0.3%#302 M | +5.5%#50 M | +21.7%#71 L |
| RSI overbought | 22 | +0.9%#4 H | +2.0%#64 H | +2.3%#150 M | +11.1%#12 M |
| Reddit spike | 19 | +0.4%#18 M | +2.9%#8 M | +3.8%#14 M | +4.9%#39 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 2 | +2.6%– | +2.7%– | -0.3%– | +2.7%– |
| Analyst downgrade | 3 | -0.1%#4 L | -0.2%#6 L | +2.2%#7 L | +21.3%#3 L |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 11 | +0.4%#9 M | +2.1%#8 M | +4.0%#11 L | +1.6%#13 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is LLY's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Insider unplanned sale
An insider's sale outside a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan; entry the session after its SEC filing.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 11 ≈9 indep. | +0.38% (-0.5 to +1.6) | Medium | #9 of 34 | 64% | +0.40% |
-2%
+2%
|
|
| 1 week | 11 ≈9 indep. | +2.15% (-0.2 to +2.6) | Medium | #8 of 34 | 64% | +2.25% |
-4%
+9%
|
|
| 1 month | 11 ≈6 indep. | +4.00% (-3.6 to +12.0) | Low | #11 of 33 | 73% | +2.70% |
-4%
+21%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 11 ≈4 indep. | +1.61% (-2.8 to +32.0) | Low | #13 of 28 | 64% | -0.30% |
-12%
+42%
|
Range of outcomes: all of LLY's unplanned insider sales in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Insider unplanned sale by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 10 | +0.7%M vs +0.1% | +2.4%M vs +0.7% | +4.0%L vs +1.9% | +1.6%L vs +9.2% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 1 | -1.1%– vs +0.3% | -3.8%– vs +1.2% | +5.9%– vs +4.0% | +42.1%– vs +7.4% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 11 | +0.4%M vs +0.1% | +2.1%M vs +0.7% | +4.0%L vs +1.7% | +1.6%L vs +6.5% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 10 | +0.4%M vs +0.1% | +2.4%M vs +0.6% | +4.6%L vs +1.6% | +7.2%L vs +7.0% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 1 | +1.6%– vs +0.2% | -2.4%– vs +1.1% | -3.6%– vs +3.3% | -12.5%– vs +11.1% |
The same event split by where LLY stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest unplanned insider sales
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | May 8 @ $945.47 | Lilly Endowment Inc (Insider), $15,754,537 | +2.0% | +6.1% | +20.9% | +30.1% |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Jan 9 @ $1,058.45 | Lilly Endowment Inc (10% owner), $322,380,730 | +1.6% | -2.4% | -3.6% | -12.5% |
| Dec 23, 2025 | Dec 30 @ $1,074.56 | Lilly Endowment Inc (10% owner), $260,409 | -0.5% | +2.6% | -3.9% | -11.5% |
| Dec 24, 2025 | Dec 30 @ $1,074.56 | Lilly Endowment Inc (10% owner), $2,852,920 | -0.5% | +2.6% | -3.9% | -11.5% |
| Nov 19, 2025 | Nov 21 @ $1,054.61 | Lilly Endowment Inc (10% owner), $176,098,702 | +1.0% | -0.2% | +1.1% | -2.8% |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Nov 13 @ $1,016.46 | Lilly Endowment Inc (10% owner), $279,347,680 | +0.4% | +2.1% | +4.0% | +1.6% |
| Nov 10, 2025 | Nov 13 @ $1,016.46 | Lilly Endowment Inc (10% owner), $16,405,396 | +0.4% | +2.1% | +4.0% | +1.6% |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Nov 4 @ $901.18 | Lilly Endowment Inc (10% owner), $260,165,031 | +2.1% | +9.0% | +12.0% | +12.7% |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Oct 10 @ $828.27 | Lilly Endowment Inc (10% owner), $86,234,874 | -1.7% | -3.7% | +16.0% | +29.9% |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Oct 2 @ $814.71 | Lilly Endowment Inc (10% owner), $86,793,274 | +2.4% | +4.3% | +5.2% | +32.0% |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Sep 22 @ $750.22 | Lilly Endowment Inc (10% owner), $81,531,959 | -1.1% | -3.8% | +5.9% | +42.1% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.