LLY
Moving with its weight-loss drugs peers
- LLY +4.79% on the last session vs SPY −0.09%: +4.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Weight-loss drugs basket +4.2% (+4.3 pts vs SPY; VKTX +5.1%, NVO +3.3%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Aftermath, big gain (+4.8% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.7%): After its 67 big gains in the past 5 years, LLY was higher a week later 40 times out of 67; half the outcomes fell between -2.4% and +3.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 0 negative); latest: Cantor Fitzgerald maintained Overweight, raised target $1,410 → $1,440.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.2× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices LLY only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
1,228.31 +1.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
1,252.93 +3.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 1,266.69 · prior close 1,208.74 | |
| Bargain buy side |
1,189.48 -1.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
1,166.11 -3.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 1,183.30 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 1,234.73 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 1,189.48 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 1,228.31 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 1,195.28 | 4 in 10 days | 1,222.35 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 1,152.59 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 1,267.63 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 1,166.11 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 1,252.93 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 1,178.85 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 1,239.38 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From LLY's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | +2.7% | +1.7% | — | — |
| Sep 24, 2026 | +2.7% | -2.7% | — | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | +3.6% | +0.6% | -6.0% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | +4.9% | +4.3% | -0.7% | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | +3.0% | -6.7% | -5.3% | -7.3% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | +7.1% | -0.7% | +1.0% | -1.9% |
| May 28, 2026 | +4.1% | -0.1% | +9.2% | +4.5% |
| May 13, 2026 | +2.6% | +0.5% | +11.7% | +19.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among LLY's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 1,600.00 +26.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 1,330.14 +5.0% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 19, 2026 |
1,280.34 +1.1% |
| Now | 1,266.69 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 1,252.93 -1.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
1,208.74 -4.6% |
| 50-day average | 1,179.14 -6.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 1,166.11 -7.9% |
| 200-day average | 1,076.85 -15.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 930.00 -26.6% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 21, 2025 |
794.56 -37.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.