LMND
Moving with the market
- LMND +0.39% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: +0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices LMND only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
45.00 +2.6% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
46.44 +5.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 44.03 · prior close 43.86 | |
| Bargain buy side |
42.75 -2.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
41.42 -5.6% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 42.40 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 45.37 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 42.75 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 45.00 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 43.08 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 44.65 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 40.66 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 47.32 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 41.42 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 46.44 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 42.14 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 45.65 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From LMND's daily swings (about 2.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | -3.1% | -4.6% | — | — |
| Apr 24, 2023 | -6.0% | -2.9% | +54.4% | +88.3% |
| Mar 20, 2023 | -4.6% | -1.1% | +2.6% | +42.4% |
| Dec 15, 2022 | -5.5% | -10.2% | -1.9% | -21.1% |
| Jun 13, 2022 | -5.4% | +5.2% | +13.0% | +38.8% |
| May 11, 2022 | -8.9% | +14.7% | +3.2% | +76.2% |
| Feb 18, 2022 | -7.4% | -3.6% | +4.4% | -20.2% |
| Dec 28, 2021 | -4.5% | -4.0% | -32.2% | -26.2% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among LMND's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 11, 2021 |
183.26 +316.2% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 22, 2026 |
96.57 +119.3% |
| 200-day average | 60.27 +36.9% |
| 50-day average | 49.35 +12.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 46.44 +5.5% |
| Now | 44.03 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
43.86 -0.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
43.86 -0.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 41.42 -5.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.