LMT
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- LMT +1.40% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +1.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 before the open: EPS $7.54 expected (16 analysts); it moved ±6.2% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Not a group move: its defense peers +0.2% (+0.1 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 14): After its 68 big gains in the past 5 years, LMT was higher a week later 39 times out of 68; half the outcomes fell between -1.0% and +2.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: TD Cowen maintained Hold, lowered target $600 → $570.
- 4 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices LMT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
530.08 +1.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
539.96 +3.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 529.55 · prior close 522.23 | |
| Bargain buy side |
514.49 -1.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
505.09 -3.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 512.00 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 532.66 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 514.49 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 530.08 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 516.82 | 4 in 10 days | 527.69 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 499.64 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 545.84 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 505.09 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 539.96 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 510.22 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 534.53 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From LMT's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2026 | +2.1% | -0.5% | -6.9% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | +2.3% | -8.3% | -10.8% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | +2.6% | -1.6% | -12.5% | — |
| Jul 23, 2026 | +10.5% | +1.0% | -0.9% | — |
| Jul 1, 2026 | +2.4% | -0.7% | +11.7% | -1.8% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +2.0% | +1.1% | +12.9% | +4.3% |
| Jun 9, 2026 | +1.9% | +1.1% | -1.3% | -0.5% |
| May 18, 2026 | +2.4% | +0.9% | +1.4% | +15.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among LMT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 756.00 +42.8% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Mar 2, 2026 |
668.17 +26.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 625.76 +18.2% |
| 200-day average | 558.73 +5.5% |
| 50-day average | 542.42 +2.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 539.96 +2.0% |
| Now | 529.55 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
522.23 -1.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 505.09 -4.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 503.00 -5.0% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 1, 2025 |
431.38 -18.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 65 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.