LNG
Moving with the market
- LNG −0.43% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: −0.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices LNG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
284.12 +1.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
289.70 +3.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 278.48 · prior close 279.69 | |
| Bargain buy side |
275.33 -1.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
270.03 -3.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 273.93 | 2 in 10 days | 285.58 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 275.33 | 3 in 10 days | 284.12 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 276.64 | 4 in 10 days | 282.77 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 266.96 | 2 in 10 weeks | 293.02 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 270.03 | 3 in 10 weeks | 289.70 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 272.92 | 4 in 10 weeks | 286.63 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From LNG's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | -2.8% | +0.5% | — | — |
| Sep 8, 2026 | -5.5% | -1.8% | -1.4% | — |
| Aug 7, 2026 | -3.6% | +6.3% | +8.0% | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | -5.1% | +0.9% | +9.2% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | -3.5% | +4.5% | +4.4% | +12.4% |
| Jun 30, 2026 | -2.0% | +9.2% | +8.0% | +12.1% |
| Jun 15, 2026 | -2.5% | -0.4% | +10.1% | +15.4% |
| May 26, 2026 | -2.8% | +0.8% | +0.4% | +19.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among LNG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Sep 2, 2026 |
295.86 +6.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 289.70 +4.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
279.69 +0.4% |
| Now | 278.48 |
| 50-day average | 275.62 -1.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 270.03 -3.0% |
| 200-day average | 250.14 -10.2% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 15, 2025 |
187.49 -32.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 32 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.